Production shortfalls and supply disruptions pressure agricultural sector
Production shortfalls, surging input costs for energy and fertilisers and trade disruptions are adding more volatility to the agricultural commodities market. Agricultural commodity prices are set to peak in mid-2022. Nevertheless, adverse weather affecting crop and cereal harvests and rising geopolitical risks will continue to pressure supply.
Fossil fuel prices to stabilise amid rising supply
Recovering post-pandemic demand for energy led to an energy price surge in 2021, which was exacerbated in 2022 by sanctions placed on fossil fuel purchases from Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine. Increasing investment in oil fields and improving supply are, however, forecast to ease the pressure on energy prices. For example, the US is the largest supplier of energy and is forecast to increase oil production, while natural gas production growth will continue to be driven by high export demand, as well as rising domestic consumption.
Metal prices are forecast to peak in 2022
Global metal prices are forecast to stabilise in 2023, as alternative supplies from outside Russia and Ukraine are expected to increase. In addition, the weak economic outlook is forecast to limit business and consumer confidence, in turn slowing down demand and helping to cap price increases. However, the shortages of metals used in electric vehicle production are forecast to worsen, as demand rises.
Supply chain diversification and resilience among the top priorities
Diversification of supply, especially in the metals sector, and building up resilience in commodity supply chains are forecast to be among the core priorities, due to the rising geopolitical risks and climate change. Companies are expected to invest more in alternative logistics channels and digital tools, and to form closer ties with their suppliers to build up resilience.