(Updates with closing prices, comment, details)
Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Monday, retreating from an over nine-month high
scaled in the last session, as weather forecasts turned cooler, although prices registered their best
month since 2009 on a surge in LNG exports.
Front-month gas futures fell 2.7 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.630 per million British
thermal units. Prices had touched their highest since early November at $2.743 on Friday.
"There is a weather change. It is going to be cooler-than-normal, which is going to reduce demand,"
Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago said, adding that less-than-anticipated
damage from Hurricane Laura and slower exports because of the storms is also weighing on prices.
However, for the month, prices were up about 46%, the most since September 2009, propped up by a
surge in LNG exports and on concerns about tropical storms.
Refinitiv data indicated 151 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two
weeks, declining from 175 CDDs in the prior day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average
temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool
homes and businesses.
Prices had earlier declined as much as 6%, but the market pared losses on concerns of another
tropical disturbance which is beginning to form in the Caribbean and could cap production, advisory firm
Ritterbusch said in a note.
U.S. output rose to 87 bcfd on Sunday as many wells in the Gulf resumed operations after Laura,
preliminary data from Refinitiv showed.
U.S. Gulf Coast offshore producers on Sunday reported 50%, or 1.35 billion cubic feet, of natural
gas output was offline due to the storm.
Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.8
bcfd this week to 82 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Aug 28 Aug 21 Aug 28 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Aug 28
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +37 +45 +77 +66
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 19 12 7 17 17
U.S. GFS CDDs 151 175 180 147 138
U.S. GFS TDDs 170 187 187 164 155
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 86.5 86.5 86.5 92.7 79.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.0 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 93.6 93.1 93.4 100.4 87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.0 1.9 3.1 2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.5 4.4
U.S. LNG Exports 3.8 2.9 4.1 6.5 2.0
U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.3
U.S. Power Plant 42.4 38.8 33.6 33.9 36.6
U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.5 21.7 21.5 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel ...
Read More: UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas slips, but posts best month since 2009