TALLAHASSEE — Florida State’s chances of putting together a winning season in Year 1 of the Mike Norvell Era took a major hit after a 16-13 loss to Georgia Tech in the season opener.
The Seminoles, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projects, are now most likely to win about 5 games this season. And they are favored in six of their remaining 10 games, although their Win Probability Rate went down in each projected victory.
For context, the same metric projected FSU to win 7 games before the start of the season, and had the Seminoles as favorites in eight of their 11 contests. Essentially, that Georgia Tech loss — a projected win — accounted for two losses as it exposed a team that isn’t as good as the computer model’s numbers initially projected.
FSU is currently 27th in the model’s Efficiency Ratings (37th Offense, 20th Defense, 2nd Special Teams) and are 20th in the FPI ranking. The Seminoles now have just a 0.1 remaining chance of winning the conference.
Here’s a look at how the FPI projects each of FSU’s remaining 11 games…