Short-Term Weather Outlook
While cooling temperatures are expected over much of the central United States, NatGasWeather said overall demand could continue to prove strong during the week following Labor Day, driven by “hot conditions over the West and very warm conditions” over the South and areas of the East.
Brad Harvey, a senior meteorologist for Maxar’s Weather Desk, said summer 2020, through August, was the third hottest on record, with a run of consecutive days between June 18 and August 2 on the hot side of the 30-year normal high temperature.
But analysts say prices are highly dependent on continued heat waves, given still soft commercial energy needs and light U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) wrote.
“The market is struggling to pin down where fair value is,” Bespoke said. “It is difficult for us to see a bullish case for the October contract, given some risk that containment creeps back into the picture.”
However, while temperatures have begun to cool in the Midwest and forecasts call for broadly milder conditions in mid-September, late summer heat permeates the West and parts of the East, propping up near-term demand, according to NGI.
“Given the time of year,” Bespoke said, “heat needs to be strong, relative to normal, in order to significantly move the needle.”
LNG feed gas is also going to be a major concern until demand returns to pre-Hurricane Laura levels. Feed gas flows to the Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG export facilities in Louisiana are still near zero. This is a big worry because increased exports could prove essential on the demand front if autumn temperatures are too low to get air conditioners cranking.
In other news, early forecasts are calling for a storage injection in excess of 60 Bcf when the EIA reports next Thursday (September 10), and an even higher build the following week. Bespoke Weather Services sees a weekly build of 62 Bcf and 77 Bcf respectively. Jumps of this size could renew worries about fall containment issues.
Finally, we’re hitting the peak of hurricane season which means we could start to see a rise in the number of tropical storms. I live in Florida so I take these storms seriously. Some analysts like to mention hurricanes in their comments like it’s part of a game that speculators are playing.
As of early Sunday morning, there is no hurricane premium in the market. There are tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, but as we saw with Hurricane Laura, they won’t have an impact on prices unless they move into the Gulf of Mexico. Don’t believe the hype from other analysts. Not every hurricane impacts natural gas prices so it’s not necessary to comment on them every day until the National Hurricane Center makes its official forecast.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.